Yagi and Managi (2016, Tranpol)

English

引用

Yagi, M. and Managi, S., “Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan,” Transport Policy, vol.50, pp.37-53, 2016. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.05.011

邦題

「日本における自動車所有の人口学的決定要因」

ダウンロード

要旨

This study empirically examines the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan between 1980 and 2009. Unique car cohort data, composed of the car age and 11 car types, at the prefectural level, is analyzed. The primary reason for examining the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan is because Japan is projected to face radical demographic changes in the next few decades. These projected changes include depopulation and an aging population with diminishing household size. This study will be the first empirical study of the car cohort model with large countrywide observations in the recent literature. This study classifies the demographic determinants into five categories: (I) longitudinal factors, (II) economic factors, (III) natural factors, (IV) social factors, and (V) other transports. Although some tendencies vary among car types, this study finds the following tendencies of ordinary car ownership (compact four-wheel drive trucks and regular and compact passenger cars). Regarding the longitudinal factors, the long-run effect is much higher than average in the recent literature, whereas the semi elasticity of car age is approximately −7%. Regarding the economic factors, the elasticities of income and fuel price on car ownership tend to be less intense than in earlier studies. Regarding the natural factors of population increase, the elasticities of population and average household size on car ownership tend to be negative. This indicates that a decrease in population and household size in Japan will accelerate car ownership. In addition, the ratio of elderly people has various effects depending on car types. Regarding the social factors of population increase, car ownership tends to be encouraged by the concentration of population within prefecture, and increased and decreased for relatively new (aged 2-11) and old (aged 12+) cars, respectively, by the concentration of population across prefectures. The former is probably due to a composite effect in urban and rural areas, whereas the latter may be a quick update cycle due to an effect of urbanization. Regarding other transports, the degrees of train and bus use tend to be negatively associated with ordinary car ownership. However, these effects are considerably small and often insignificant as in the literature.

参考文献

  • Anowar, S., Eluru, N., Miranda-Moreno, L.F., 2014. Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review. Transport Reviews 34 (4), 441–473. doi:10.108001441647.2014.915440
  • Automobile Inspection and Registration Information Association [AIRIA]. 2015. Number of automobiels owned. http://www.airia.or.jp/publish/statistics/number.html [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Automobile Inspection and Registration Information Association [AIRIA]. 1981-2010. Number of automobiles owned by initial registered year.
  • Dargay, J.M., Vythoulkas, P.C., 1999. Estimation of a Dynamic Car Ownership Model Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 33 (3), 287–301.
  • Dargay, J.M., 2002. Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 38 (5), 351–366. doi:10.1016/S1366-5545(01)00019-9
  • de Jong, G., Fox, J., Daly, A., Pieters, M., Smit, R., 2004. Comparison of car ownership models. Transport Reviews 24 (4), 379–408. doi:10.10800144164032000138733
  • Dunkerley, F., Rohr, C., Daly, A., 2014. Road traffic demand elasticities: A rapid evidence assessment. RAND Corporation Research Reports No. RR-888-DFT. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR888.html [Accessed 9 August 2015]
  • Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan [ESRI]. (various years). Annual Report on National Accounts. http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/kakuhou/files/files_kakuhou.html [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan [ESRI]. 2015. Prefectural Accounts. http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/kenmin/files/files_kenmin.html [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Goodwin, P., Dargay, J., Hanly, M., 2004. Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review. Transport Reviews 24 (3), 275–292. doi:10.10800144164042000181725
  • Graham, D.J., Glaister, S., 2004. Road Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimates: A Review. Transport Reviews 24 (3), 261–274. doi:10.10800144164032000101193
  • Hayashi, Y., Kato, H., Teodoro, R.V.R., 2001. A model system for the assessment of the effects of car and fuel green taxes on CO2 emission. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 6 (2), 123–139. doi:10.1016/S1361-9209(00)00021-3
  • Ingram, G.K., Liu, Z., 1999. Motorization and the Provision of Roads in Countries and Cities, Policy Research Working Papers. The World Bank. doi:10.15961813-9450-1842
  • Institution for Transport Policy Studies [ITPS]. 1985-2010. Annual Report of Local Transportation.
  • Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc [JAMA]. 2015. Automobile industry in Japan: Four-wheel vehicles ― Sales. http://www.jama.or.jp/industry/four_wheeled/index.html [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Matas, A., Raymond, J.-Ll., 2008. Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 42 (1), 187–202. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2007.08.005
  • Morisugi, H., Ohno, E., 1996. NOx Reduction Effects of the Policy to Reduce Diesel Automobiles and its Influence on Price Change, in: Hayashi, Y., Roy, J. (Eds.), Transport, Land-Use and the Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers TRES4, pp. 171–190. doi:10.1007978-1-4757-2475-2_9
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS], 2012. Population Projections for Japan (January 2012): 2011 to 2060. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/newest04/sh2401top.html [Accessed 9 August 2015]
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. 2015. Population Statistics: XII. Prefectural Statistics. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/Popular/Popular2015.asp?chap=0 [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • National Police Agency, Japan. 2013. Statistics of driver’s license in 2010. https://www.npa.go.jp/toukei/menkyo/index.htm [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan [OIC]. 2015. General retail price: gasoline, diesel oil, and lump oil at oil station. https://oil-info.ieej.or.jp/price/price.html [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Ortúzar, J.D.D., Willumsen, L.G., 2011. Modelling Transport, Fourth Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK. doi:10.10029781119993308
  • Ritter, N., Vance, C., 2013. Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 50, 74–85. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.035
  • Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan [MIAC]. 2012a. Historical Statistics of Japan: Chapter 2 Population and Households. http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/02.htm [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan [MIAC]. 2012b. Population Estimates: Time Series 2000 - 2010. http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/ListE.do?bid=000001039703&cycode=0 [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan [MIAC]. 2015a. Population Estimates: Annual Report 2014. http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/ListE.do?lid=000001132435 [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan [MIAC]. 2015b. Retail Price Survey: Retail price of gasoline for automobiles (brand code: 7301) in Tokyo (1966-latest month). http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kouri/doukou/8.htm [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan [MIAC]. 2015c. Consumer Price Index (Standardized in 2010): City class, local city, metropolitan area, and prefectural capital (middle classification index). http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?bid=000001033708&cycode=0 [Accessed 9 August 2015].
  • Sun, Y., Susilo, Y.O., Waygood, E.O.D., Wang, D., 2014. Detangling the impacts of age, residential locations and household lifecycle in car usage and ownership in the Osaka metropolitan area, Japan. Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 15, 517–528. doi:10.1631/jzus.A1300345
  • Whelan, G., 2007. Modelling car ownership in Great Britain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 41 (3), 205–219. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2006.09.013
TOP page (日本語)